The current forecasts point to higher U.S. stock indexes, declining inflation and interest rates, moderate economic growth, a relatively stable labor market, stronger precious-metal prices and a volatile crude-oil market. Forecast values are monthly averages.

U.S. Stock Market Forecast

The S&P 500 is forecast at 7,852 in September, followed by an October decline to 7,681 and a recovery to 8,380 by April 2027. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is projected to fall from 54,510 in September to 53,355 in October before rising to 57,690 in April.

The Nasdaq Composite follows a similar pattern, declining from 26,933 in September to 26,308 in October and subsequently advancing to 29,090 by April. The Russell 2000 is projected to decline from 3,081 in September to 2,984 in October, rise to 3,251 in February and ease to 3,210 in March.

Interest Rate Forecast

The 10-year Treasury yield is forecast to decline from 4.73% in September to 4.30% in February, rise briefly to 4.35% in March and reach 4.23% in April. The 30-year mortgage rate is projected to fall from 6.70% in September to 6.20% in April.

The federal funds rate is projected to remain at 3.63% through November before declining to 3.45% in December and 3.28% by March 2027.

Currency Exchange Rate Forecast

The euro-to-dollar exchange rate is forecast to decline from $1.156 in September to $1.126 in January before recovering to $1.173 in March. The British pound is projected to follow a similar path, falling from $1.351 to $1.320 and then rebounding to $1.368.

The Canadian dollar exchange rate, expressed as Canadian dollars per U.S. dollar, is expected to rise from 1.393 in September to 1.416 in January before declining to 1.381 in March.

The yen-to-dollar exchange rate is projected to reach 164.9 yen per dollar in October before declining to 156.1 in March. The Australian dollar is forecast to bottom at $0.686 in October and rise to $0.718 by March.

The Chinese yuan exchange rate is expected to peak at 6.82 yuan per dollar in December before easing to 6.70 in March. The Mexican peso exchange rate is projected to reach 17.70 pesos per dollar in October and decline to 16.91 by March.

U.S. Economic Outlook

Annual real U.S. GDP growth is projected at 1.49% through September, increasing to 2.00% during the fourth quarter and 2.06% in early 2027.

The U.S. inflation rate is forecast to decline steadily from 3.16% in September to 1.73% in March. The unemployment rate is expected to remain near 4.1% through November before gradually increasing to 4.3% in early 2027.

Gold and Silver Price Forecast

Gold is projected to rise from $4,589 per ounce in September to $4,693 in October, retreat to $4,518 in December and advance to $5,007 by April. Silver is forecast to remain near $63 per ounce through October before rising to $72.12 in March.

Crude Oil Price Forecast

Crude oil is forecast at $84.40 per barrel in September, declining to $74.60 in November and $74.00 in January. Prices are then projected to recover to $81.80 in March before easing to $77.20 in April.

Overall Forecast Outlook

Overall, the outlook suggests temporary weakness in U.S. equities during October followed by renewed gains, gradually lower borrowing costs, slowing inflation, modest economic growth and continued strength in precious metals.

Forecast values are monthly averages rather than exact month-end targets and are subject to estimated margins of error. Review the individual forecast pages for complete tables, charts and historical data.