Financial Market and Economic Forecasts

The current forecasts point to broadly higher U.S. stock indexes and precious-metal prices into spring and early summer 2027, with periodic setbacks. Economic growth remains positive, inflation moderates, and crude oil prices trend lower.

U.S. Stock Indexes

U.S. stocks are projected to advance through December, pull back in January, and resume their broader upward trend, with another setback in April. The S&P 500 rises from 7,846 in November to 7,996 in December, slips to 7,869 in January, and reaches 8,149 in March. After an April decline to 8,004, the index recovers to 8,323 in June.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 follow the same turning points. Their November-to-June forecasts rise from 52,660 to 55,663, from 26,905 to 28,710, and from 2,841 to 3,033, respectively. All four indexes reach their highest projected monthly averages in June.

Interest Rates

The federal funds rate and prime rate outlook remains consistent with a modest 25-basis-point increase during December. Monthly averages rise from 3.88% and 7.00% in November to 4.06% and 7.18% in December, then to 4.13% and 7.25% in January–February. The full quarter-point step appears in January's averages. A further spring increase brings the projected rates to 4.38% and 7.50% in April–May.

Longer-term borrowing costs rise into January before generally easing. The 10-year Treasury yield increases from 5.02% in November to 5.20% in January, then falls to 4.85% in May and edges up to 4.88% in June. The 30-year mortgage rate follows a similar path, moving from 7.22% to a January peak of 7.40%, declining to 7.05% in May, and ending June at 7.08%.

Major Exchange Rates

The euro and British pound weaken into December, reaching approximately $1.10 and $1.31, before recovering to around $1.16 and $1.37 in March–April. Both ease slightly by June. The Australian dollar follows a similar recovery, rising from about $0.69 in November–December to $0.72 in March–April, then settling near $0.71.

The Japanese yen strengthens after December, with the exchange rate falling from 160.10 yen per U.S. dollar to 153.40 in April before returning to 155.20 in June. The Mexican peso strengthens from 18.67 per dollar in December to 17.76 in March, then eases to 17.96 in June. The Chinese yuan trades within a narrower range, strengthening to 6.63 per dollar in February before weakening to 6.69 in June.

U.S. Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment

Real GDP growth remains positive but gradually slows, from 2.71% year over year in November–December to 2.65% in January–March and 2.49% in April–May. The forecast therefore points to continued expansion at a more moderate pace.

CPI inflation is projected to peak at 4.15% in November, ease to 4.09% in December, and decline more sharply to 2.35% in March and 1.37% in May. Unemployment remains comparatively stable at 4.2%–4.3% through May, with brief increases to 4.3% in January and March.

Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil

Precious metals are forecast to strengthen into spring. Gold rises from $3,957 per troy ounce in November to $4,130 in December and a peak of $4,437 in April, then settles near $4,377 in June. Silver climbs from $54.51 in November to $61.43 in January and $73.49 in May before easing slightly to $73.10 in June.

Crude oil moves in the opposite direction, with monthly averages declining throughout the forecast period. Prices fall from $102.90 per barrel in November to $94.60 in December, $82.90 in February, and $74.40 in June. The outlook shows a sustained retreat from near-term highs.

Coverage: November 2026–June 2027 where published; federal funds, prime rate, GDP, inflation, and unemployment projections extend through May. Market and interest-rate forecasts are monthly averages. GDP growth and CPI inflation are year-over-year changes. Forecasts are subject to estimated margins of error; see the linked tables for details.