Financial Market and Economic Forecasts

The current forecasts point to broadly higher U.S. stock indexes and precious-metal prices into spring and early summer 2027, with periodic setbacks. Economic growth remains positive, inflation moderates, and crude oil prices trend lower.

U.S. Stock Indexes

U.S. stocks are projected to advance through March, pull back in April, and resume their upward trend in May and June. The S&P 500 rises from 7,669 in November to 7,822 in December, 7,940 in January, and 8,141 in March. After an April decline to 7,996, the index recovers to 8,158 in May and 8,314 in June.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 follow the same turning points. Their November-to-June forecasts rise from 52,032 to 56,095, from 26,143 to 28,546, and from 2,826 to 3,087, respectively. All four indexes reach their highest projected monthly averages in June.

Interest Rates

The federal funds rate and prime rate outlook remains consistent with a modest 25-basis-point increase during December. Monthly averages rise from 3.88% and 7.00% in November to 4.06% and 7.18% in December, then to 4.13% and 7.25% in January–February. The full quarter-point step appears in January's averages. A further spring increase brings the projected rates to 4.38% and 7.50% in April–June.

Longer-term borrowing costs rise into January before generally easing. The 10-year Treasury yield increases from 5.02% in November to 5.20% in January, then falls to 4.85% in May and edges up to 4.88% in June. The 30-year mortgage rate follows a similar path, moving from 7.22% to a January peak of 7.40%, declining to 7.05% in May, and ending June at 7.08%.

Major Exchange Rates

The euro and British pound weaken into December, reaching approximately $1.10 and $1.31, before recovering to around $1.16 and $1.37 in March–April. Both ease slightly by June. The Australian dollar follows a similar recovery, rising from about $0.69 in November–December to $0.72 in March–April, then settling near $0.71.

The Japanese yen strengthens after December, with the exchange rate falling from 160.10 yen per U.S. dollar to 153.40 in April before returning to 155.20 in June. The Mexican peso strengthens from 18.67 per dollar in December to 17.76 in March, then eases to 17.96 in June. The Chinese yuan trades within a narrower range, strengthening to 6.63 per dollar in February before weakening to 6.69 in June.

U.S. Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment

Real GDP growth remains positive but gradually slows, from 2.71% year over year in November–December to 2.65% in January–March and 2.49% in April–May. The forecast therefore points to continued expansion at a more moderate pace.

CPI inflation is projected to peak at 4.15% in November, ease to 4.09% in December, and decline more sharply to 2.35% in March and 1.37% in May. Unemployment stays within a 3.9%–4.1% range, easing from 4.1% in November to 3.9% in April–May before edging up to 4.0% in June.

Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil

Precious metals are forecast to strengthen into spring. Gold rises from $3,957 per troy ounce in November to $4,130 in December and a peak of $4,437 in April, then settles near $4,377 in June. Silver climbs from $54.51 in November to $61.43 in January and $73.49 in May before easing slightly to $73.10 in June.

Crude oil moves in the opposite direction, with monthly averages declining throughout the forecast period. Prices fall from $102.90 per barrel in November to $94.60 in December, $82.90 in February, and $74.40 in June. The outlook shows a sustained retreat from near-term highs.

Coverage: November 2026–June 2027 where published; GDP and inflation projections extend through May. Summary checked against the individual forecast tables on November 11, 2026; update dates vary by series. Market and interest-rate forecasts are monthly averages. GDP growth and CPI inflation are year-over-year changes. Forecasts are subject to estimated margins of error; see the linked tables for details.