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Inventory to Sales Ratio Forecast

You might ask yourself "so what?"  Why does the inventory to sales ratio matter?  Well, it turns out the inventory to sales ratio is a good proxy for real economic recessions.  When the IS ratio goes above trend, as it did in 2001, 2009 and 2015, the U.S. economy is in a recession.

U.S. Inventory to Sales Ratio Forecast

Ratio Total Business Inventory to Total Business Sales. Seasonally Adjusted.

Month Date Forecast Value Avg Error
0 Sep 2024 1.38 ±0.00
1 Oct 2024 1.38 ±0.0083
2 Nov 2024 1.39 ±0.01
3 Dec 2024 1.41 ±0.012
4 Jan 2025 1.45 ±0.012
5 Feb 2025 1.48 ±0.013
6 Mar 2025 1.52 ±0.014
7 Apr 2025 1.53 ±0.014
8 May 2025 1.55 ±0.015

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Chart of U.S. Inventory to Sales Ratio with Current Outlook.

Chart of Inventory to Sales Ratio with Forecast

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Current Economic Indicators
December 20, 2024
Indicator Value
S&P 500 5930.85
U.S. GDP Growth, YoY % 2.72
U.S. Inflation Rate, % 2.75
Gold Price, $/oz-t 2616.45
Crude Oil Futures, $/bbl 69.58
U.S. 10 Year Treasury, % 4.52

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